I’m not one of those people who thinks that Donald Trump is the End of Democracy. Rather, he’s a petty guy who’s a bully and a con artist. He might be squandering a billion dollars, assaulting women, stiffing business partners, or ripping off students of “Trump University.” That’s why I’ve always thought that elevating him with hyperbolic language is a bad idea. He’s not a crisis of Western civilization, he’s a criminal problem, albeit a big one.
And that brings me to Summer 2023. As of today, Trump is facing multiple indictments relating to withholding classified documents and encouraging the January 6 riots. I’m not going to opine on the legal side of things, but raise a political question. I think the most likely outcome of the 2024 election is that Biden is easily re-elected because the economy is pretty good and incumbents tend to do pretty well. However, there is small chance (1%?) that something like this happens and it’s a real catastrophe:
The various judges in Trump’s court cases schedule trials during or after the GOP primary season.
Trump is convicted after he is nominated by the GOP. This isn’t crazy as his base is super-dedicated and no competitor has yet to emerge to dethrone Trump. I don’t think “indicted” or “in court” will dissuade most of his voters.
In Spring or Summer, something crazy bad happens to Biden. It could be health, or even death. Another possibility is that the long feared recession is here and people start losing jobs. The new Democratic leader may not be that great.
Trump refuses to step down. Gambling that a replay of 2016 may happen, he continues to campaign. I doubt he’ll ever get to 50% of the popular vote, but in a recession or other extreme situation, a few of those Midwest states could tip the electoral college.
As President-elect, he knows he’s golden. After being sworn in, Trump either goes for an auto-pardon or just assumes he won’t serve jail time as a sitting president.
Within the Constitution, there isn’t a really good mechanism for preventing someone who wins the electoral college from becoming President. The main mechanism is simply for states to de-certify Trump electors or for states to pass a law assigning electors to the national popular vote winner (the “electoral compact”). It’s a mess. Not likely, but there is a small chance we’ll end up with a political Jackson Pollock painting.
Bottom line: Allowing convicted criminals to be your party’s presidential nominee may be asking for trouble.
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